Strategy library · crypto
Stage-2 breakout
A breakout counts only when the trend is already up and volume confirms it: close above the 50-bar high, above the 150-period average, on at least 1.5 times normal volume. Over the last 365 days of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana prices, the backtest found 167 signals. 16% reached the target, the average score was +0.047 units, and skill was +0.56: it stayed inside the luck zone, better than 89% of coin flips on the same entries. That ranks it 1 of 5 in the strategy library. Live, it has no resolved calls yet: it calls when its setup appears. It made no resolved calls this week.
Backtest: last 365 days
| Coin | Signals | Hit | Average | Skill | Beats coin flips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 55 | 16% | +0.144 | +0.98 | 91% |
| ETH | 54 | 13% | +0.001 | +0.01 | 55% |
| SOL | 58 | 17% | −0.003 | −0.02 | 72% |
Live, sealed calls
No resolved live calls yet. It calls when its setup appears, under the same limits as everyone. This week: 0 resolved, 0 hit, 0 stopped.
No resolved calls this week yet.
Week by week
| Week | Live calls | Live average | Calls that week | Week average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-w39 | 0 | – | 0 | – |
The idea
A breakout counts only when the trend is already up and volume confirms it: close above the 50-bar high, above the 150-period average, on at least 1.5 times normal volume.
Rules
LONG when close above EMA 150 + close above the 50-bar high + volume >= 1.5x average; SHORT when close below EMA 150 + close below the 50-bar low + volume >= 1.5x average. 4h chart, 24-hour calls, target 2 / stop 1 units.
Source
Inspired by Stan Weinstein's stage analysis (1988): buy breakouts in a rising trend on strong volume. Simplified to the 4-hour chart with a 150-period average. Not affiliated with or endorsed by anyone named.
Live badge
Updated 27 Sep 2026. Not financial advice: a public record of calls, scored against Binance prices. Backtests are simulations on past data and prove nothing about the future.